Tag: flooding

Public Activism Can Help Mitigate Sea Level Rise Flooding Problems

Owners of real estate in areas now experiencing sea level rise flooding can fight back by teaming up and going public with their plight. That’s the experience of an Ocean City, NJ, woman whose neighborhood flooded on a regular basis.

Suzanne Hornick shared her story with Samantha Harrington, a reporter for the Yale Climate Connections website. Hornick said the flooding in her neighborhood has worsened over the decades her family has owned property in Ocean City. Fed up, she fought back by creating a Facebook page that documented the flooding and by joining with her neighbors to form the Ocean City, NJ, Flooding Committee. The committee demanded that the city deal with the problem. They even distributed “Fix our flooding now” signs that residents displayed on their lawns.

By aggressively demanding relief, Hornick and her group developed a contentious relationship with local city officials. Then they had a breakthrough when she consulted with Tom Herrington, a coastal scientist and director of the Urban Coast Institute at Monmouth University. Herrington, who grew up in Ocean City, advised Hornick and the group about how to gather tidal and flood data that could be used to convince the city to take concrete steps to solve the flooding problem wherever possible, which it did. As a result of all their efforts, Hornick says she hasn’t had flooding on her street in a year.

Hornick, the group, and the city can’t rest on their laurels, however. They still have to take additional steps to address the continuously rising seas.

With sea level rise flooding on the rise in communities along the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coastlines, real estate owners can’t afford to take a passive approach when it comes to protecting what for most is their greatest investment: Their homes. Gathering data, taking photos, building a website and forming flood-focused interest groups, is a great way to appeal to officials and the public for relief.

Insurers and Mortgage Providers Are Shifting Sea Level Rise Flooding Risk to Government-Run Programs and, Ultimately, Taxpayers

A recent article by Naveena Sadasivam published in Grist examines in-depth the way insurance companies and mortgage providers are shifting the risk from sea level rise flooding and other climate change-related disasters to government run insurers and, ultimately, taxpayers. This could have grave consequences for coastal real estate markets.

There are several mechanisms they’re using to unburden themselves of the risks, according to the Grist article. One way is for private insurers to abandon risky areas, leaving states with subsidized state insurance programs — such as California, Florida and Texas — to pick up the burden. Another way is for mortgage providers to make loans in high-risk areas and then sell them to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which guarantee about 50 percent of the country’s $10 trillion mortgage market.

Unfortunately, many of the state-subsidized insurance programs are underfunded. If a natural disaster hits, they could go broke, leaving taxpayers to pick up the tab. The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage programs are also at risk of being destroyed from disasters. If they fail, taxpayers will likely have to cough up billions of dollars in bailout money.

According to the Grist article, “Experts say if these climate risks are left unaddressed, the combined effects could ripple across the economy in ways that mirror the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007.”

Mortgage providers require buyers and owners to purchase flood insurance. If insurance becomes prohibitively expensive or unreliable, coastal real estate markets could lock up and property values could plummet.

When it Comes to Sea Level Rise Real Estate, Timing is (almost) Everything

When buyers are considering purchasing coastal properties in areas that are forecast to experience sea level rise flooding in years or decades to come, one of the questions they have to ask themselves is: “How long do I expect to enjoy the property?”

This question came to light bluntly when I had lunch today with friends who live on an island in San Francisco Bay. My friends, a husband and wife in their mid-60s, said they weren’t too concerned about sea level rise — though they know it’s coming — because it’s not predicted to actually flood their property for another 50 years. As the wife put it, “We’re pretty sure we’ll be dead by then.”

Actuarial tables say she’s probably right. As long as the current sea level rise forecasts hold, they probably will get to enjoy their property for the remainder of their lives.

Sea level rise vs. life expectancy is an important issue for buyers and owners in coastal areas to consider when they’re pondering their real estate options. Sea level rise forecasts are putting a potential expiration date on many communities along the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coastlines. Knowing when rising seas will begin to inundate cities and towns is critically important for buyers and sellers. Other factors that have to be considered are how will sea level rise impact carrying costs, such as home maintenance, taxes, flood insurance and condo and homeowners’ association fees.

Combining sea level rise forecasts, your life expectancy, and your ability to afford the carrying costs as you age, is a good way for buyers and owners to tell if it makes sense to get involved or stay involved in real estate in a coastal community. When you’re talking about such fun areas to live in, this level of analysis can sound like a real downer, but not taking this dry-eyed look at the sea level rise situation could lead to an even greater downer: financial disaster.

This issue is discussed in greater detail in “7 Sea Level Rise Real Estate Questions.”

Florida Senate Bill Calling for State Level Sea Level Rise Office and Task Force Advances in Tallahassee

With up to 3 feet of sea level rise predicted in the next 40 years and $300 billion worth of real estate at risk due to flooding by the end of this century, Florida continues to furiously work to address this offshoot of global warming.

The state went from essentially denying the existence of climate change and sea level rise during Gov. Rick Scott’s tenure to playing catchup when Gov. Ron DeSantis took office in early 2019. DeSantis was roundly applauded for appointing a Chief Resilience Officer to take on the problems posed by sea level rise flooding and climate change. Now the state senate is advancing a bill that would create a Statewide Office of Resiliency and Statewide Sea-Level Rise Task Force .

If the bill passes, the Office of Resiliency would create sea level rise projections that would be reported directly to the governor for use in policy-making. The task force would be comprised of nine members, including the Chief Resilience Officer and Department of Environmental Protection’s Chief Science Officer.

Sen. Tom Lee, the lead sponsor of the bill (SB7016), told FloridaPolitics.com, “Whoever picks up the ball and begins to run with it here will have to hit the pavement running … I acknowledge that.”

In the absence of federal and state leadership and response coordination, counties, local governments and private interests have formed regional commissions on their own to address sea level rise flooding, which is already threatening real estate, roads and infrastructure in many communities. Buyers, sellers, owners and real estate agents need to stay informed about their activities. Their ability to address sea level rise flooding will have a substantial impact on individual properties, neighborhoods, taxes, and flood insurance.

The Destructive Relationship Between Sea Level Rise and New Coastal Real Estate Development

Living in a coastal community that’s experiencing sea level rise flooding, I’m amazed at the hundreds of millions of dollars of new commercial and residential real estate being built in neighborhoods that are flooding today or that will soon be subject to floodwaters as the seas continue to rise.

When I ask my real estate agent friends what they think about the situation, they are always quick to remind me that Florida’s economy is heavily reliant on new building projects and the jobs, investment and tax dollars they bring for its very survival.

Many cities and towns along he Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico coastlines are equally addicted to new development to keep their economies rolling and their governments solvent. There is, however, clearly a downside to this relationship.

As sea levels continue to rise, those same coastal cities and towns are going to have to start to invest heavily in flood mitigation strategies, such as raising roads and water and sewer pipes, building or raising sea walls and installing pumps. In some cases, they may even have to buy-out homes and whole neighborhoods that flood repeatedly. When this day arrives — and it has already arrived in parts of the Florida Keys and other vulnerable locations — what seemed like a good idea today — allowing hundreds of millions of dollars in new development in areas vulnerable to sea level rise — will have enormous costs to taxpayers and property owners.

Taxpayers will have to pay the tab to protect the expensive new flood mitigation projects. And the higher taxes to pay for those projects, combined with the higher insurance premiums that go hand-in-hand with sea level rise flooding, could cause property values to plummet.

Linda Shi, an assistant professor in Cornell University’s department of city and regional planning, wrote an op-ed titled “The fiscal challenges of climate change” for the Boston Globe. In it, she explains the challenge posed by new coastal development in the age of rising seas. She studied the Massachusetts coastline in detail and discovered:”Statewide, 40 percent of local revenues come from property taxes; along the coast, 60 percent; and in some coastal suburbs, 70-80 percent. State expectations that local governments self-finance most of the services they provide inevitably incentivize continued development wherever possible, placing coastal sites and cities on a collision path with rising seas.”

Shi says the negative cycles could be reversed if cities and states included fiscal considerations into sea level rise flooding vulnerability assessments. She also said regional land-use planning agencies and non-governmental organizations could help by evaluating “how climate change affects local budgets, how fiscal vulnerability and adaptation choices impact the region and vice versa.” Their input would help communities to decide where to allow new real estate developments to minimize the eventual costs that arise due to sea level rise flooding.

The future costs of placing new developments in or near sea level rise flood zones is an important issue to consider today. Making informed decisions will protect subsequent generations from the high cost of protecting or decommissioning billions of dollars worth of real estate our generation knew was at-risk before ground-breaking shovels were turned.

California Coastal Commission and Malibu Developer Clash Over Sea Level Rise Height Predictions

The California Coastal Commission, the City of Malibu and coastal developer at clashing over a new beach development on the Pacific Coast Highway. One of the major points of contention is estimates of how much the sea will rise by 2100.

The city approved the developer’s plan based on an old sea level rise estimate of 1.5 feet by the turn of the century. The Coastal Commission takes issue with that prediction, which it says will put the property at a greater risk of flooding.

An engineer the city used to evaluate the project approved the 1.5 foot estimate because that was the number the Coastal Commission included in its 2015 guidance document. The Coastal Commission says the engineer should have used its region-specific estimate and updated 2018 guidance.

The gap between the Coastal Commission and the engineer is enormous. The sea level rise estimate was increased to over five feet in 2018. According to an article in the Malibu Times, a Coastal Commission staff report said, “The difference is more than 4.65 feet, which is significant in determining the required setback, finished floor elevation, and safety of the proposed structure from extreme events and sea level rise.” The report also mentions that scientists are now estimating that the seas could rise anywhere from 3.3 feet to 10 feet by the end of the century.

Scientists are having a tough time predicting sea level rise precisely because humans continue to burn the fossil fuels that create the greenhouse gases that are causing global warming at an accelerated rate. If society continues on this track, even the most liberal predictions could turn out to be conservative, especially if the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt faster and are destabilized to the point where land-based glaciers flow more rapidly into the sea.

The Malibu case is just one example where real estate developers and cities are relying on the most optimistic sea level rise estimates for new construction projects. Buyers shouldn’t trust that a developer or city has done its homework when they purchase a coastal property. Independent due diligence is required to make sure they’re fully informed regarding the risk of sea level rise flooding in the years to come.

California Town Embraces Retreat to Address Sea Level Rise Threat

“Resiliency” and “retreat” are two popular buzzwords regarding sea level rise and real estate. Resiliency is making the changes necessary to prevent sea level rise flooding as long as possible so people can continue to live near the coast. Retreat is recognizing that either the cost is too high or it’s impossible to engineer your way out of the flooding, so everyone has to move back away from the coastline.

Currently, resiliency is the solution most coastal cities and towns are using to address sea level rise. Governments and property owners are spending billions of dollars to elevate property and critical infrastructure, such as pipes and roads. They’re also building and/or raising sea walls and installing pumps.

Retreat is far less popular. From the Florida Keys to the Pacific Coast, property owners are fighting plans that would force them to move away from coastal areas that are subject to sea level rise-driven flooding or at great risk of flooding in the near future.

According to an article in the Los Angeles Times, Marina, California, a small town with 23,000 residents north of Monterey, is actively embracing retreat as a solution to its sea level rise woes. The town is considering plans that have proven unpopular in most coastal locations, including requiring sellers to disclose sea level rise information to buyers, moving infrastructure away from at-risk areas, and discussing relocation with the operators of a private beach resort.

To ensure that the town doesn’t have to make the same difficult decisions over-developed towns are being forced to make regarding resiliency or retreat, Marina officials are actively steering real estate developers toward inland locations away from the eroding shoreline.

David Revell, a coastal scientist and sea level rise consultant, told the Times, “Marina is such a good test case. Here we have the precedent of a community that understands that … there has to be enough lead time to get things out of the way — before it’s in the way.” Revell added that Marina’s pro-active approach “is a really powerful message to the rest of California.”

Residents seem to generally approve of the town’s approach to dealing with sea level rise. The town’s draft plan is almost finished.

Real estate buyers in coastal areas need to consider whether a city or town intends to rely on resiliency or retreat to address sea level rise flooding. Resiliency can lead to higher taxes and the possibility that a property of interest will be impacted by the construction of sea walls, pump stations and other infrastructure. Retreat could limit the amount of time a property can be owned and enjoyed. Both approaches could also impact property value.

Boston Mounts an Aggressive Plan to Battle Sea Level Rise Flooding

Much of Boston, MA, is built on landfill, which makes it especially vulnerable to sea level rise flooding. With estimates ranging anywhere from 10 inches of global sea level rise to over seven feet by the end of this century, the city is mounting an aggressive plan to hold back the rising seas, according to a Washington Post article.

With over nine inches of sea level rise racked up since the beginning of the last century, areas of Boston are already experiencing sea level rise flooding that’s especially noticeable during extra high king tides in the fall.

To fight back against sea level rise flooding and the higher than normal storm surges it can bring, the Boston’s mayor is dedicating more than $30 million a year to address the problem. Among the projects are elevating streets and parks, and building higher berms and sea walls. City officials are concerned that they’re not doing enough to protect residents and real estate in the poorest neighborhoods, but they are considering options.

Despite the effort to combat sea level rise, Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University, told the Post, Boston and other coastal cities may still ultimately have to retreat from the rising seas. He said, “It is what a lot of cities will have to do because a lot of neighborhoods are not defensible.”

Boston’s experience with sea level rise flooding as discussed in this article is yet another example of why buyers, sellers, owners and real estate agents in coastal areas need to educate themselves on which properties and neighborhoods are experiencing sea level rise flooding and what, if anything, can be done to hold back the rising tides.

Hawaii’s Trying to Decide Where to Allow New Real Estate Developments in Areas Threatened by Sea Level Rise

Lawmakers in Hawaii are taking on an issue few coastal states are ready to address: Where do you allow new real estate developments when scientists are predicting up to three-to-six feet of sea level rise by the end of this century?

The answer could have a huge impact on real estate developers, builders and people seeking affordable housing.

According to a report on Honolulu Civil Beat, some legislators in Hawaii are promoting a bill that would prevent new construction in areas below 6 1/2 feet of the current sea level. With land elevations varying greatly, that would still allow some construction right on the shore while developers wouldn’t be allowed within a half mile of beaches in other areas. Builders in Honolulu say that limit would prevent them from constructing many new developments, including projects that would be sold at a more affordable price point.

The stakes are high for Hawaii. Scientists predict that even 3.2 feet of sea level rise by 2100 would displace more than 13,000 people and lead to $12.9 billion in economic losses in Oahu alone.

As in other states, there are areas in Hawaii where coastal real estate is already experiencing flooding due to rising seas. Finding solutions that serve the needs of current generations while looking out for the future is a difficult political tightrope to walk. Further complicating the issue is the fact that the burning of fossil fuels, global warming, and rising sea levels are continuing at an accelerating pace, which makes it difficult to issue the accurate predictions coastal communities need for planning purposes.

That Hawaii is discussing this difficult issue is commendable. Other states need to step up to the plate to protect people and property.

South Carolina Latest State to Consider Hiring a Sea Level Rise Resiliency Chief

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster has proposed the creation of a chief resiliency office position at the highest levels of state government to help coordinate the state’s response to extreme storms and sea level rise flooding.

According to a report in The Post and Courier, the resiliency chief would develop plans to seek federal funding for flood mitigation projects, control development in vulnerable areas, and improve how the state responds to disasters.

If the new position is approved, South Carolina would join Florida and North Carolina — states long considered resistant to discussing climate change and sea level rise flooding — in appointing a high level official to deal with the problems created by global warming.

The South Carolina climate change czar would also be responsible for collecting the latest climate change information and relaying it to government officials and the public. Local government officials have told the state they need money for seawalls, drainage improvements and other projects to hold back rising tides. Charleston alone estimates it needs $2 billion to protect residents and real estate.

It’s unclear at this point whether Gov. McMaster’s proposal will get the support it needs from the state legislature. Meanwhile, sea level continues to rise.