Tag: climate change

Virginia Beach Restricts Real Estate Development in Bold Sea Level Rise Plan

The city council in Virginia Beach, Virginia, voted this week in favor of a bold new plan to combat sea level rise and intense storm flooding. The city, which is in an area that already experiences climate change-driven flooding, requires developers to take more stringent steps to plan for flooding from sea level rise and strong storms.

Under the new plan, the city is calling on developers to design projects that handle 20 percent more rainfall than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts for the region. As the earth’s atmosphere continues to warm, climate experts predict more storms with downpours capable of flooding. The city is also requiring developers to replace the methods they’re now using to predict where stormwater runoff will go with more accurate Environmental Protection Agency software.

The city’s plan also includes provisions that require new construction projects to accommodate flooding due to sea level rise predicted between now and 2085. Hospitals and other critical infrastructure will have to be built to handle 3 feet of sea level rise. Non-critical structures will have to cope with 1.5 feet of higher seas.

Acting City Manager Tom Leahy told The Virginia-Pilot that replacing old regulations with the new plan now will save the city money tomorrow. “The more we develop under the old standards, the more we’re going to have to fix down the road,” he said.

Virginia Beach’s investment in these regulations and other steps to combat flooding from sea level rise, storm surges and rainstorms is expected to save millions of dollars each year. The city says some federal funding will be needed to cover the cost of the new projects.

Virginia Beach’s pro-active approach to climate change related flooding is commendable. Many major coastal cities are allowing expensive development with little thought to the impending threat and the cost to future generations.

This brings up an important point for real estate buyers: Just because a coastal community allows development doesn’t meant it is immune to flooding. Always perform due diligence to find out if a property of interest experiences flooding or is likely to experience flooding during the period you intend to own it. Also consider the fact that flooding can result in higher carrying costs for maintenance, taxes and insurance and it may cause the property value to decline.

Can We Rely on Mangroves to Provide a Line of Defense against Sea Level Rise Flooding?

One of the greatest challenges involved in combatting sea level rise flooding is finding solutions that will stand the test of time. Some coastal communities have been seeking natural solutions, such as sand dunes, wetlands and native vegetation, to hold back ever-higher tides and storm surges. Planners recognize the ability of natural ecosystems to self-regulate and adjust to sea water as it exerts pressure to march inland.

In the U.S., some southern Atlantic and Gulf Coast communities have been including mangroves in their action plans. They’re counting on the thick, leafy forests that thrive in shallow coastal waters to not only absorb and store some of the carbon released into the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels that’s driving global warming but to act as a buffer against storm surges and higher tides. They also hope to benefit from the mangroves ability to capture sediments and build land when the seas are trying to erode it away.

The idea sounded great until a recent study led by Macquarie University in Australia found that unless humans reduce the release of greenhouse gases, the seas will soon rise at a faster pace than the mangroves can accommodate. With sea level rise accelerating, due to ocean expansion and the ever-quickening pace of ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica, the mangroves could start to disappear within the next thirty years.

Unfortunately, real estate alone won’t pay the price when mangroves are gone. Mangroves provide a valuable nursery for birds, fish and other organisms. Their loss will endanger whole ecosystems.

More Powerful Storm Surges and Sea Level Rise Flooding Force Charleston, SC, to Ponder Its Future

Charleston, South Carolina, a densely developed peninsula surrounded by creeks and rivers that pour into the ocean, has reached the point where sea level rise flooding and the threat of ever more powerful storm surges threatens its very existence. The title of a recent article in The Post and Courier sums up the situation quite succinctly: “Charleston faces an existential choice: Wall off the rising ocean or retreat to higher ground.”

As the city celebrates its 350th year, the Army Corps of Engineers released a proposed plan to see it through 50 more. The Corps is calling for the construction of an 8-mile protective wall around the core peninsula along with pumps to help keep the city dry. Additional infrastructure improvements, such as raising flood-prone roads and clearing spaces to store water after heavy rains, may also be needed. The project would cost an estimated $1.75 billion with locals responsible for $600 million of the tab.

As with many other cities considering massive projects to protect valuable coastal real estate from inundation, funding for the proposed project is a major sticking point that has only been made worse by the budget-busting coronavirus pandemic.

Some residents see Charleston’s historic value and ability to draw 7 million tourists a year as reason alone to mount an aggressive effort to save it. They’re concerned that if they don’t get started soon, flooding will diminish the city’s value.

On the other hand, The Post and Courier article by Chloe Johnson hints that some residents exhausted from past floods are considering moving out. And at least one academic worries that the wall will give people a false sense of security that might result in increased investment in the peninsula. Andy Keeler, a climate expert at Eastern Carolina University, told the paper that this can result in a more painful economic collapse when sea level rise and storm surges eventually defeat the man-made defenses.

The Army Corps of Engineers estimates that without the wall and other improvements, Charleston will lose half of its historic structures to flooding by 2075. Real estate buyers and owners in Charleston and other coastal cities and towns confronting similar challenges need to consider the costs and benefits of proposals to rein in the water — and the potential that projects will never be built — when deciding how to react to the growing threat of sea level rise flooding and more powerful storm surges.

Coastal Real Estate Buyers, Owners & Agents Need to Start Paying Attention to Storm Surge Prevention Projects

A major impact of global warming is stronger storms with more powerful storm surges. Climate change-driven sea level rise will also further magnify the ability of storm surges to inundate valuable real estate.

Cities along the U.S. coast are shifting from considering the threats stronger storm surges pose to local real estate to actually proposing solutions. Real estate buyers and owners need to pay close attention to what’s appearing on the drawing boards. The surge control projects could impact their property values, businesses, tax rates and quality of life.

Real estate agents need to stay current so they’re armed with facts when buyers, sellers and owners ask for the latest information about projects in their farm areas.

In Florida’s Miami-Dade County, ground zero for sea level rise flooding, for example, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recently unveiled a draft plan that would spend $4.6 billion on a series of 1-to-13 foot tall sea walls and pumps to protect 2.8 million people and tens of thousands of buildings worth $311 billion from storm surges. According to a Miami Herald article, the project also calls for moveable barriers to be installed at the mouths of three waterways and the elevation of thousands of buildings.

The Corps of Engineers is holding online public hearings regarding storm surge the plan this week. The impact on some property owners could be enormous. For example, a thirteen foot wall and pump stations would certainly change the view from front-line properties. The loss of a beautiful view would impact the quality of life for the owners as well as property values.

In addition, current estimates are that local taxpayers would have to bear up to 35% of the project cost while the federal government would pick up the remainder. Depending on how the project financing is structured, property owners could face substantial tax hikes. (After Covid-19 rocked the economy and government budgets, funding is bound to be a big X-factor even for projects that receive a stamp of approval.)

According to an article on the YaleEnvironment360 website, ambitious storm surge control projects are also being considered in Charleston, SC, Galveston, TX, coastal communities in New Jersey, and in and around New York City. Real estate buyers and owners in coastal areas need to keep up on the latest developments to weigh the benefits and costs of the the proposed projects. Put another way, they need to ask if the projects will protect their property, property value and quality of life without emptying their wallets.

It’s important to note that the storm surge project in Miami-Dade isn’t intended to protect communities from the increased tidal flooding that will occur as sea levels continue to rise in the decades to come. That will take a whole other effort, if it’s possible at all. This is due to the fact that South Florida is built on porous limestone, which allows seawater to easily flow beneath structures such as seawalls. Things are, indeed, getting complicated for coast-dwellers.

The Loss of Louisiana Marshes to Sea Level Rise Puts New Orleans Real Estate at Risk

Over the course of the last several decades, people have come to recognize the value of coastal marshlands as both incubators of aquatic birds and marine life and as buffers to floods and storm surges that can quickly inundate valuable real estate. A recent study published on the American Academy for the Advancement of Science’s Science Advances website reached the troubling conclusion that sea level rise is occurring at such a fast pace that the marshes that protect New Orleans and surrounding communities could vanish beneath the waves in the next fifty years.

Scientists studied over 8,000 years of marsh history to determine that the marshes have reached a “tipping point” where they are being consumed by the ocean faster than they can adjust to higher sea levels. The study’s lead scientist, Torbjorn Tornqvist, a professor of geology at Tulane University, told the Washington Post that even with efforts to reduce the production of earth-warming greenhouse gases, the marshland’s fate could be sealed. “We know the rate of sea level rise, even with the best action you can imagine, it’s still going to ramp up further,” he said. “Given the slowness of the ocean responses, it’s going to last for a very long time.”

The ocean has been gnawing away at the protective marshlands for decades. Experts blame the loss on the penning in of the Mississippi River channel, which used to spread land-building sediment broadly across the river delta, and on channels cut through the marshes for petroleum company pipelines. Louisiana is trying to reverse some of the damage by diverting some of the river’s sediment-rich flow out of the manmade channel and onto adjacent lands.

Professor Tornqvist sees this as a way to buy time that ultimately won’t save the city from inundation. “I think a couple of decades is incredibly valuable,” he said, “because it could be the difference between a somewhat managed retreat verses complete chaos.”

The researchers believe their study could prove valuable to all coastal communities that rely on marshlands as a buffer against sea level rise flooding and storm surges. “Our findings highlight the need for consideration of longer time windows in determining the vulnerability of coastal marshes worldwide,” they wrote in their study abstract.

The takeaway for buyers and owners of real estate in coastal areas protected by marshlands is to recognize that they’re not wastelands but a critical part of the ecosystem that protect their property from flooding. With that in mind, it’s important for them to learn about the health of the local marshes as well as their predicted life-expectancy under pressure from sea level rise.

Challenges Facing Southeast Florida — Ground Zero for Sea Level Rise Flooding — Described in Exhaustive BBC Report

With its low elevation and proximity to lots of water on all sides and underfoot, Southeast Florida is clearly ground zero for sea level rise flooding. The BBC recently published an exhaustive report on the current status of sea level rise in the region — that includes the Florida Keys all the way north through Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach — and the challenges of controlling the inundation. The report makes fascinating required reading for anyone investing in residential and commercial real estate in coastal areas that are threatened by surging tides.

The BBC report, written by Amanda Ruggeri, is full of fascinating facts about sea level rise. Among them:

  1. Current predictions are that sea level could rise by up to 10 inches in the region by 2030 and 5 feet by 2100.
  2. Each additional inch of sea level rise can have a substantial affect on coastal real estate.
  3. The region has more people at risk from sea level rise than any other state, and Miami, specifically, has more financial assets at risk than any other major coastal city in the world.
  4. Cities in the region are already making changes to infrastructure to address sea level rise flooding, including raising roads and seawalls and installing hundreds of tidal valves and pump stations.
  5. Despite the efforts to hold back the sea, experts recognize that they will not be able to save every property and neighborhood from flooding.
  6. Every community faces different challenges. Governments, homeowners, business owners, taxpayers, insurers, developers, engineers and planners are going to have to work together to decide how to address sea level rise in their communities.
  7. Each community is an intricate puzzle where making a change to one piece of infrastructure, such as raising a segment of seawall or roadway, can lead to the unintended flooding of neighboring properties.
  8. Reaching consensus can lead to clashes over proposed solutions, costs, potential impacts and private property rights.
  9. Among the encouraging signs is that in the absence of federal and state leadership, county and local governments are forming regional partnerships to address sea level rise in a coordinated fashion.
  10. Among the discouraging signs is that finding funding sources for the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of projects needed to hold back the rising tides is difficult.

While the BBC report provides a broad, holistic view of how Southeast Florida is tackling sea level rise flooding, real estate buyers, owners and agents still need to invest time and effort evaluating how rising tides are impacting their properties and communities before making decisions. Sea level rise is already resulting in increased property maintenance costs, taxes, insurance and association fees in some areas. It’s also hurting the rate of property value appreciation and forcing extreme measures, such as road abandonment and property buy-outs.

As the polar ice caps continue to melt and the oceans expand due to global warming, these sea level rise is going to challenge more and more coastal residents.

The Coronavirus Pandemic Threatens to Worsen the Effects of Global Warming and Sea Level Rise

Two widely reported (and rare) positive impacts of the Covid-19 Coronavirus pandemic tragedy are cleaner air and a 17 percent reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming and sea level rise.

Residents in cities around the world have been astonished to see mountain ranges at a distance that have rarely been seen in generations due to curtains of smog. And the drop in greenhouse gas emissions has led many to believe that global warming and sea level rise have been derailed.

Unfortunately, the real picture isn’t so rosy. While there have been a few months with greenhouse gases on the decline — mainly due to the fact that people under lockdown aren’t driving to work — the the high concentration of carbon dioxide accumulated since the turn of the last century remains intact. This ultimately means global warming continues, as does sea level rise.

Some observers see even the temporary drop in the release of greenhouse gases as proof-positive that humanity can tame global warming, thereby preventing the predicted extreme weather — mega droughts, heat waves, floods and intense hurricanes — from impacting society and sea level rise from inundating major cities around the world. Their reasoning is that if people under threat of a pandemic can reduce consumption of fossil fuels, then people facing catastrophe from a warming planet can do the same.

If only it were that simple.

The fact is that most people reduced fossil fuel consumption not as a direct goal to save the environment but because under lockdown they didn’t have a choice. It’s doubtful that without the immediate crisis people would have willingly stopped driving. In addition, there are signs that as nations and states reopen commuters will avoid potential exposure to the virus on public transportation and start driving to work in increasing numbers. This, of course, will increase the rate at which carbon dioxide is pumped into the atmosphere.

Some observers have also opined that the recovery from the pandemic is an excellent opportunity for governments to invest in a new world powered by renewable energy. That’s a very noble goal, but the reality is governments have already spent so much saving their economies from pandemic-related collapse it’s unlikely they’ll have the funds necessary to pay for such an ambitious project.

Further complicating matters in the United States is the fact that the federal government is reluctant to provide emergency funding to state and local governments facing severe deficits due to the loss of tax revenue from economic inactivity during the lockdown and the unexpected expenses involved in dealing with the pandemic. This is especially worrisome because many of the state and local governments grappling with climate change and sea level rise-related expenses were already counting on the federal government to provide a portion of the millions and even billions of dollars they need to fund projects that would protect real estate and critical infrastructure. Without federal assistance, it will be difficult for them to pay for projects, such as seawalls and pump stations and raising roads and water pipes.

When we’re in the middle of the pandemic, it’s hard to predict how this will all play out. One thing’s for sure, however, global warming and sea level rise still pose a threat to coastal communities, and real estate buyers and owners ignore them at their own peril. Bottom Line: If many of the projects needed to protect homes and businesses from sea level rise flooding aren’t funded and begun now, more real estate and critical infrastructure will be inundated in the years to come.

Human Activity, not Earth’s Distance from the Sun is Driving Sea Level Rise

Scientists at Rutgers University have released a study that proves humans burning fossil fuels are creating global warming, not, as some people contend, Earth’s proximity to the sun.

In the past, slight changes in Earth’s orbit drove global warming that resulted in glacial ice melt. In the modern era, the scientists found that a human-driven rise in carbon dioxide — a powerful greenhouse gas — is warming the planet. As a result, glaciers — especially in Antarctica and Greenland — are melting and the oceans are expanding. This is causing the sea levels to rise.

The scientists reached their conclusion by reconstructing the history of Earth’s glacial and ice free periods. They found that sea level declined 20,000 years ago during the last glacial period then it began rising rapidly as the ice age ended. Sea level rise gradually slowed to the point where it was nearly at a standstill in 1900. The researchers said it then started rising again due to human activities, and it has been rising since.

Kennth G. Miller, the study’s lead author and a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers, told Rutgers Today: “Our team showed that the Earth’s history of glaciation was more complex than previously thought. Although carbon dioxide levels had an important influence on ice-free periods, minor variations in the Earth’s orbit were the dominant factor in terms of ice volume and sea-level changes – until modern times.”

The Rutgers research puts another nail in the coffin of climate change deniers who refuse to recognize that the planet is warming and the seas are rising due to human activity. When combined with the pile of scientific evidence that proves the seas are rising at an ever-accelerating rate, it’s clear that governments and buyers, sellers and real estate agents in coastal areas need to stay up to date on this critical issue that is already threatening their way of life.

Planners Can’t Afford to Overlook Groundwater-Driven Sea Level Rise Flooding — University of Hawaii Study

Researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa studied three different sources of sea level rise flooding and found groundwater inundation — a rising of the water table to the surface due to the pressure created by sea level rise — is the major threat to urban Honolulu.

To arrive at this conclusion, the researchers studied the likely causes of sea level rise flooding over the next few decades in Honolulu. They did this by producing flood maps that considered the threats posed by sea level rise-driven groundwater inundation, reverse municipal drainage — where ocean water flows backward through the drainage system and rises up through stormwater drainage grates — and direct marine inundation — where ocean water flows in from the sea. Among their surprising findings, they determined that direct marine inundation represented only 3 percent of the overall near-term threat.

The researchers said their findings clearly indicate that seawalls, one of the most popular approaches to holding back sea level rise flooding from damaging real estate and critical infrastructure, such as roads and water and sewer pipes, won’t be able to stop groundwater inundation. They said the only options in areas impacted by groundwater inundation will be to adapt to the flood waters or abandon the affected area.

“What this means for the future of Honolulu is that we need to consider each different type of flooding individually and really think about how we’re adapting to each one,” said Shellie Habel, a coastal geologist with the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program.

The University of Hawaii report should act as a wake-up call to coastal areas everywhere that have high water tables and porous bedrock, like South Florida. The groundwater inundation threat must be considered before enormous amounts of money are invested in sea walls that ultimately won’t be able to protect real estate and critical infrastructure from sea level rise flooding. (Photo courtesy of School of Ocean and Earth Science Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Antarctica and Greenland Ice Melt Raised Sea Levels a Half Inch In the Last 16 Years — NASA Report

NASA scientists crunched data from satellite missions to determine that ice melt in Antarctica and Greenland over the last 16 years raised sea levels about half an inch. Put another way, the researchers said both locations contributed 5,000 gigatons of water to the oceans which is enough to fill Lake Michigan.

Ice melt and ocean expansion due to global warming are the primary contributors to sea level rise. Experts are concerned that the rate of melting is picking up pace. Helen Fricker, a glaciologist at the University of California-San Diego, told National Public Radio, “How much ice we are going to lose, and how quickly we are going to lose it, is a really key thing that needs to be understood, so that we can plan.”

There are two main forces driving the melting in Antarctica and Greenland. In Antarctica, warming oceans are melting floating ice shelves, which is allowing land based ice to flow into the ocean. In Greenland, warmer atmospheric temperatures are melting ice and creating run-off. At the same time, the warmer air is also causing glacial ice to calve off and fall into the ocean.

If all the ice melted in Greenland alone, scientists estimate global sea levels would rise 23 feet. Fricker told NPR, “There’s a lot of infrastructure and airports and people that live right on the ocean, and these people are going to feel the effects of sea level rise that’s resulted because the ice sheets have melted.”