Tag: climate change

Global Consultant Recommends Steps to Protect Florida Real Estate Value from Sea Level Rise Flooding

McKinsey & Company, a global consulting firm, released a report this week that analyzes the risk sea level rise flooding poses to billions of dollars worth of Florida’s residential real estate and recommends steps that could be taken to mitigate the damage.

The report, titled “Will mortgages and markets stay afloat in Florida?”, starts by stating the simple fact that Florida’s unique location — in a hurricane-prone zone — and geology — extra low elevation with a porous limestone foundation that allows sea water to move freely — makes it very susceptible to sea level rise flooding. In fact, the authors cite a First Street Foundation study that concluded sea level rise will increase the number of days that many coastal areas experience tidal flooding each year from a few days today to 200 days a year by 2050. In addition, the average annual damages from storm surges will itself surge from $2 billion today to up to $4.5 billion by the middle of this century.

The report goes on to discuss how sea level rise is already depressing home values in areas that experience sea level rise flooding compared with those that don’t. “About 25,000 homes in Florida already experience flooding at frequencies of more than 50 times per year (almost once a week on average),” according to the report. “With rising sea levels, 40,000 coastal properties representing $15 billion of value could run this risk by 2030, and 100,000 properties worth $50 billion by 2050.”

The threat to the value of Florida’s residential real estate isn’t posed only by direct flooding, either. The report says as buyers are increasingly made aware of the flooding and the expenses involved in owning a property in a flood zone, prices will likely drop. Buyers could also balk at the higher insurance premiums and taxes that are sure to be levied as a result of flooding. A final point of pressure is the mortgage market. With the risk of flooding increasing every year, experts are wondering how long mortgage providers be willing to write 30-year-mortgages — or even 15 year mortgages, for that matter — for high risk properties when the owners might never pay back the loans.

The report authors offer a few potential solutions that could help mitigate the risk. Among their recommendations are that: 1. Real estate markets become more transparent about the risk of sea level rise flooding, so buyers don’t lose confidence in the market; 2. More money be spent on projects needed to upgrade the infrastructure — such as sea walls and storm sewers — needed to fend off the flooding ; and 3. Policy makers, engineers, investors and community organizations band together in groups to decide which properties to protect from sea level rise flooding and which to abandon.

In the end, the authors write that “While the state and communities face hard choices in the face of rising sea levels and worsening hazards, planning today can help manage the consequences and minimize the costs of climate change in the future.”

It’s clear from this report that the day of reckoning is here for buyers, sellers, owners and real estate agents in coastal communities. Understanding the roles played by individual property owners, governments, insurers and mortgage providers in the health of a real estate market impacted by sea level rise flooding is critical to protect your financial future.

Florida’s First Sea Level Rise Resiliency Officer Leaves Bombshell Report

Julia Nesheiwat, Florida’s first sea level rise resiliency officer, left her position after only a few months on the job, but a report she left behind in late 2019 should act as a call to action for the state.

According to the 36-page annual report she prepared for Governor Ron DeSantis that was acquired by the Tampa Bay Times, Nesheiwat evaluated how Florida was dealing with sea level rise and concluded that their response was too slow and disjointed. “Florida’s coastal communities and regions do not have a lot of time to waste,” she wrote. Her main concerns are that local communities are trying to cope with sea level rise on their own and, as a result, they are duplicating fact-gathering and planning.

“Florida needs a statewide strategy,” she wrote. “Communities are overwhelmed and need one place to turn to for guidance.” One of the facts fueling her concern cited in the report is the “$26 billion of residential property in Florida at risk of chronic flooding by 2045.”

Nesheiwat said the state should serve as the repository for information and guidelines so coastal communities wouldn’t have to duplicate efforts to come up with solutions to common problems posed by sea level rise flooding. She also made it clear that the state can’t rely on cities to address the enormous challenge alone. One of the examples she provided was the $75 million Monroe County needs to raise less than 3 miles of road in Sugarloaf Key.

With sea levels predicted to rise several feet by the end of the century, Florida’s residential and commercial real estate holders can’t afford to ignore Nesheiwat’s warning and advice.

Buyers Need to Consider Fresh Water Sources When Purchasing Real Estate in Communities at Risk from Sea Level Rise

As sea levels rise, many coastal communities are concerned that salty ocean water will contaminate water wells that provide fresh water to millions of residents. The loss of a fresh water source would be devastating to a city or town. Trying to find new sources, if it’s even possible, could be expensive. This issue should be of concern to real estate buyers in coastal communities.

The saltwater intrusion problem isn’t theoretical. For example, in 2007 researchers at Florida State University surveyed water planners to predict what would happen if seas rose 6-to-18 inches by 2057. Half the planners were concerned that their wells would be threatened by tidal salt water traveling up coastal rivers where water intakes and wells were located.

Kenneth Miller, an earth scientist at Rutgers University, told YaleEnvironment360 this week that the combination of heavy development on barrier islands with low elevations and broad exposure to ocean water puts New Jersey and other locations around the world at risk of saltwater intrusion.

South Florida residents could get a taste of the future this summer. The densely populated region is experiencing a deepening drought that’s forcing water managers to enforce watering restrictions and move water around in canals to prevent wildfires in the Everglades. As fresh water supplies are drawn down, there’s the risk that saltwater will try to fill the void, which could put wells at risk.

Whether salt water intrusion becomes a problem remains to be seen, but the situation certainly exposes a situation that many real estate buyers in coastal areas are not aware of that’s only going to get worse in the years to come. Clearly, knowing how secure a community’s supply of fresh water, or even a private well, is from saltwater intrusion is an important point to consider when buying property in areas near the sea.

Fifty-year Floods to Become Daily Events if Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Aren’t Curbed

Researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago and the University of Hawaii released a study this week that concluded once-in-a-lifetime floods will become daily events in most U.S. coastal areas by the end of this century if climate change and sea level rise aren’t brought under control.

The study, published in Scientific Reports, said low-lying cities such as Miami, New Orleans and Honolulu will be especially vulnerable to the increasingly higher tides and storm surge generated by ever-stronger tropical storms. In addition, the researchers said beach and cliff erosion will make coastal areas more vulnerable to higher tides than they already are.

Sean Vitousek, a US Geological Survey scientist, told The Guardian, “If future sea-level rise causes once extreme but rare floods to occur frequently then … this may render some part of the US coastline uninhabitable.”

Greenland’s Ice Sheet Melts at Record Rate in 2019, Scientists Worry the Weather System that Caused it will Double the Rate of Sea Level Rise

Scientists published a study today that concluded that Greenland’s ice sheet melted at a record rate last summer due not just to the heat generated by general global warming but because of a high pressure area that brought lots of sunshine and warmer days to the region.

The researchers analyzed weather data and found that Greenland experienced 63 summer days ruled by the high pressure system, which is double the normal 28 days of high pressure logged between 1981 and 2010. This fueled the loss of 600 billion tons of water, which is estimated to contribute up to .06 inches of sea level rise globally.

The scientists worry that past predictions for the rate of ice sheet loss in Greenland did not take into consideration the impact high pressure areas could have on the rate of melting. If it speeds up, coastal areas with millions of inhabitants and trillions of dollars worth of real estate could be inundated a lot sooner than expected. Marco Tedesco, a researcher at Columbia University who led the study, told Reuters: “We’re destroying ice in decades that was built over thousands of years. What we do here has huge implications for everywhere else in the world.”

Greenland and Antarctica are home to the world’s largest ice sheets. If all the ice in Greenland melted, sea levels would rise by up to 23 feet.

Researchers say the study on high pressure and accelerated ice melt is further evidence that humans need to reduce the burning of fossil fuels to save coastal communities.

Sea Level Rise Flooding Forces Cities and Real Estate Owners to Struggle with Resiliency or Retreat

“Resiliency or retreat? That’s the question many coastal cities and real estate owners are struggling with as climate change causes global sea levels to rise and flood their communities and properties.

An article published today in the Washington Post takes a detailed look at the tough choices cities and owners have to make when floodwaters show up on their streets and property. Government officials in many coastal areas are working hard to provide homeowners with solutions that are effective in their particular situation.

In some areas the flooding is so bad and it’s so expensive to maintain essential services — such as roads, and stormwater and sewer systems — that governments see retreat as the only solution. They’re spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to purchase private properties and then knocking them down.

In other areas, the flooding hasn’t reached that critical point — though it will one day — so governments are subsidizing homeowner efforts to elevate their properties and they’re upgrading critical infrastructure. The only problem with this approach is that one day the streets will still flood, limiting the owners’ ability to reach their properties.

Implementing resiliency and retreat programs isn’t seamless. Often, government officials encounter owners who are not ready to alter or abandon their properties. This can lead to legal and political problems. Another issue is the shear cost of dealing with sea level rise. The Post article cites a Center for Climate Integrity report that estimated that $42 billion dollars will be needed by 2040 to build seawalls to protect U.S. cities with more than 25,000 residents. Add communities of less than 25,000 residents and the estimated cost balloons to $400 billion.

The federal government won’t necessarily be able to come to the rescue either. For example, right now the Army Corps of Engineers has nearly $100 billion in approved construction projects, but Congress has only approved $2 billion to fund them.

The math involved in changing the direction of heavily settled coastal areas is daunting. According to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report, 126 million people live in coastal communities that produce $8.3 trillion in goods and services. Coming up with cost-effective solutions to deal with sea level rise flooding in such a densely populated and enormous geographical area seems nearly impossible.

The Post article also examines the challenges confronted by real estate buyers in coastal areas. In 21 states it’s very difficult for buyers to tell if they’re moving into a flood zone. A.R Siders, a researcher with the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware, told the Post: “I can go on Carfax and find out about the car I’m going to buy, but if I’m going to take out a 30-year mortgage and tie up myself financially, in some states I can’t find out if the house has been damaged. Home buyers are being tricked into buying properties they would not otherwise buy.”

The Post article gives an example of a buyer who works in commercial real estate who was assured that the waterfront property he wanted to purchase would be a minor inconvenience. When the sellers transferred their federal flood insurance policy to him, he found out insurers had paid flood damage claims in 2003, 2009 and 2011. Transparency isn’t assured in every real estate transaction in part because a federal privacy law passed in the 1970s forbids insurers from disclosing a property’s flood history without the seller’s approval.

After reading the Post article, it becomes clear yet again that real estate buyers, sellers, owners and agents in coastal areas need to stay current on the latest information regarding sea level rise flooding in their communities to protect their financial futures. The Washington Post article by writer Jim Morrison is a must-read for everyone involved in coastal real estate.

San Francisco Bay Officials Release a Report that Outlines the Cost of Inaction on Sea Level Rise

Government agencies in the San Francisco Bay Area took a dry-eyed look at the threat sea level rise poses to their region and reached this stark conclusion: “Flooding and rising sea level pose a risk to everyone in the Bay Area, from local communities where homes and jobs may flood, to residents who rely on transportation to connect us, keep our economy humming, and potentially play a role in mitigating the impacts of climate change down the line.”

That finding was included in a recently published report titled “Adapting to Rising Tides — Bay Area” that considered what would happen in the region if no effort was made to address climate change and sea level rise flooding.

Drawing on hundreds of data sources, the report authors found that shoreline flooding would impact everyone who lived in the region. “Even if your home is far from the shoreline, the roads, rails and ferries we rely on; the schools, childcare, and hospitals we depend on; the job at which we work; and the beautiful natural areas we love are at risk,” the report said.

Among the dire predictions for real estate in the region, the report said with four feet of flooding over the next 40 to 100 years nearly 13,000 housing units would “no longer be habitable, insurable, or desirable places to live.” It also said 70,000 badly needed new housing units might not be built or will be built outside the area where they’re most needed.

The agencies that produced the report — Caltrans, Metropolitan Transportation Commission/Association of Bay Area Governments, Bay Area Regional Collaborative, and San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission — are encouraging Bay Area entities to use it to “plan for rising seas level in a way that preserves and enhances the future for not just a select handful of cities or assets, but for everyone.”

Will the Coronavirus Disaster Spur Governments to Act on Climate Change?

As the world grapples with the coronavirus, economies have slowed to the point that the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has plummeted. Some environmentalists see this as proof that humans are in fact capable of burning less fossil fuels, which, they believe, will enable us to escape the deadly heat waves, powerful storms, lengthy droughts, rapid sea level rise, food shortages and mass displacement predicted in current climate change forecasts.

Stewart Patrick, the James H. Binger senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, isn’t so sure. In a column published today in World Politics Review, Patrick writes that nobody “welcomes a pandemic that threatens to kill millions” but that the the pandemic has “captured many environmentalists’ imaginations, by showing what a less polluted planet might look like and suggesting how the world might mobilize to fight climate change.”

In Patrick’s view, the environmentalists’ vision is a mirage. He writes: “Unfortunately, the response to COVID-19 is more likely to frustrate than inspire strong global action on climate change. Governments will prioritize short-term economic goals over long-term sustainability, while loosening environmental regulations and their enforcement.”

Unfortunately, for the planet and those of us living on it now and in the not-so-distant future, Patrick’s opinion that governments will use the the pandemic as an excuse to loosen environmental regulations to bolster the economy is already happening. The Trump administration recently gutted Obama-era rules that would have reduced auto emissions. The Trump Environmental Protection Agency also issued a rule that absolves industry of reporting pollution violations if they were committed due to the pandemic. The U.S. isn’t the only country to take such steps, either. China, too, is relaxing its environmental regulations to fire-up its wounded economy.

Patrick said public demand for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will also likely wane as people who lost their jobs due to the pandemic become more interested in making a living than protecting the planet.

If Patrick’s right, the coronavirus pandemic will actually serve not as a lesson on how we can escape the coming climate change disaster, it will amplify it.

Trump’s Busy Rolling Back Environmental Policies, Setting Up Another Global Catastrophe

While the nation focuses its attention on fighting the coronavirus pandemic, the Trump Administration has been working to rollback environmental policies. The result of its efforts will be to accelerate climate change and the sea level rise flooding that threatens millions of lives and billions, if not trillions, of dollar worth of real estate located along the vulnerable U.S. coastline.

In late March, the Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would would not fine companies that break the law by failing to monitor their emissions and discharges if they can prove the lack of monitoring was due to the coronavirus epidemic. In response, a coalition of environmental groups signed a petition to the EPA that warned: “EPA’s non-enforcement policy threatens environmental and health protections by inviting regulated entities to pollute and to hide crucial information from the public. It conveys a broad license to quit monitoring and reporting indefinitely, based only on the honor system.”

On another front, the Trump administration boasted that it performed “the largest deregulatory initiative of this administration” when it announced on March 31 that it was replacing Obama-era fuel standards with lower annual increases. According to a CNN report, the rule, which was created by the EPA and Department of Transportation, calls for fuel economy and emissions standards to increase by 1.5% each year instead of the 5% annual increase in the Obama rule.

President Obama criticized the change on Twitter writing: “We’ve seen all too terribly the consequences of those who denied the warnings of a pandemic. We can’t afford any more consequences of climate denial.”

A New York Times analysis estimated that the new rule would lead to nearly a billion more tons of carbon dioxide — a major greenhouse gas that causes global warming — being released into the atmosphere.

Using one global emergency to accelerate another is a dangerous game to play for us all. With the lack of responsible federal leadership, we are as unprepared for the coming crises sure to be posed by global warming and sea level rise as we have been for the coronavirus pandemic. If we don’t get a handle on greenhouse gas emissions, the results will be devastating.

NASA: Greenland and Antarctica Ice Melt Speeding Up Sea Level Rise

NASA reported this week that Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are melting six times faster than they did in the 1990s, a development that could have a severe impact on coastal real estate.

NASA scientists published their statement on the Jet Propulsion Laboratory website in response to a study by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that showed Greenland and Antarctica combined lost 6.4 trillion tons of ice in three decades. “Unabated, this rate of melting could cause flooding that affects hundreds of millions of people by 2100,” according to NASA.

Researchers used observations from 11 satellite’s that monitor Greenland and Antarctica ice loss to arrive at their disturbing conclusion. They calculate that the meltwater has raised global sea level by .7 inches. This doesn’t sound like much, but it can have a significant effect on coastal populations. “Every centimeter of sea level rise leads to coastal flooding and coastal erosion, disrupting people’s lives around the planet,” said Prof. Andrew Shepherd, a scientist at the University of Leeds.

Ice melt isn’t the only factor fueling sea level rise. Ocean heating and expansion and the melting of smaller land-based glaciers also contribute to higher seas.