Tag: sea level rise

The Loss of Louisiana Marshes to Sea Level Rise Puts New Orleans Real Estate at Risk

Over the course of the last several decades, people have come to recognize the value of coastal marshlands as both incubators of aquatic birds and marine life and as buffers to floods and storm surges that can quickly inundate valuable real estate. A recent study published on the American Academy for the Advancement of Science’s Science Advances website reached the troubling conclusion that sea level rise is occurring at such a fast pace that the marshes that protect New Orleans and surrounding communities could vanish beneath the waves in the next fifty years.

Scientists studied over 8,000 years of marsh history to determine that the marshes have reached a “tipping point” where they are being consumed by the ocean faster than they can adjust to higher sea levels. The study’s lead scientist, Torbjorn Tornqvist, a professor of geology at Tulane University, told the Washington Post that even with efforts to reduce the production of earth-warming greenhouse gases, the marshland’s fate could be sealed. “We know the rate of sea level rise, even with the best action you can imagine, it’s still going to ramp up further,” he said. “Given the slowness of the ocean responses, it’s going to last for a very long time.”

The ocean has been gnawing away at the protective marshlands for decades. Experts blame the loss on the penning in of the Mississippi River channel, which used to spread land-building sediment broadly across the river delta, and on channels cut through the marshes for petroleum company pipelines. Louisiana is trying to reverse some of the damage by diverting some of the river’s sediment-rich flow out of the manmade channel and onto adjacent lands.

Professor Tornqvist sees this as a way to buy time that ultimately won’t save the city from inundation. “I think a couple of decades is incredibly valuable,” he said, “because it could be the difference between a somewhat managed retreat verses complete chaos.”

The researchers believe their study could prove valuable to all coastal communities that rely on marshlands as a buffer against sea level rise flooding and storm surges. “Our findings highlight the need for consideration of longer time windows in determining the vulnerability of coastal marshes worldwide,” they wrote in their study abstract.

The takeaway for buyers and owners of real estate in coastal areas protected by marshlands is to recognize that they’re not wastelands but a critical part of the ecosystem that protect their property from flooding. With that in mind, it’s important for them to learn about the health of the local marshes as well as their predicted life-expectancy under pressure from sea level rise.

Challenges Facing Southeast Florida — Ground Zero for Sea Level Rise Flooding — Described in Exhaustive BBC Report

With its low elevation and proximity to lots of water on all sides and underfoot, Southeast Florida is clearly ground zero for sea level rise flooding. The BBC recently published an exhaustive report on the current status of sea level rise in the region — that includes the Florida Keys all the way north through Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach — and the challenges of controlling the inundation. The report makes fascinating required reading for anyone investing in residential and commercial real estate in coastal areas that are threatened by surging tides.

The BBC report, written by Amanda Ruggeri, is full of fascinating facts about sea level rise. Among them:

  1. Current predictions are that sea level could rise by up to 10 inches in the region by 2030 and 5 feet by 2100.
  2. Each additional inch of sea level rise can have a substantial affect on coastal real estate.
  3. The region has more people at risk from sea level rise than any other state, and Miami, specifically, has more financial assets at risk than any other major coastal city in the world.
  4. Cities in the region are already making changes to infrastructure to address sea level rise flooding, including raising roads and seawalls and installing hundreds of tidal valves and pump stations.
  5. Despite the efforts to hold back the sea, experts recognize that they will not be able to save every property and neighborhood from flooding.
  6. Every community faces different challenges. Governments, homeowners, business owners, taxpayers, insurers, developers, engineers and planners are going to have to work together to decide how to address sea level rise in their communities.
  7. Each community is an intricate puzzle where making a change to one piece of infrastructure, such as raising a segment of seawall or roadway, can lead to the unintended flooding of neighboring properties.
  8. Reaching consensus can lead to clashes over proposed solutions, costs, potential impacts and private property rights.
  9. Among the encouraging signs is that in the absence of federal and state leadership, county and local governments are forming regional partnerships to address sea level rise in a coordinated fashion.
  10. Among the discouraging signs is that finding funding sources for the hundreds of millions of dollars worth of projects needed to hold back the rising tides is difficult.

While the BBC report provides a broad, holistic view of how Southeast Florida is tackling sea level rise flooding, real estate buyers, owners and agents still need to invest time and effort evaluating how rising tides are impacting their properties and communities before making decisions. Sea level rise is already resulting in increased property maintenance costs, taxes, insurance and association fees in some areas. It’s also hurting the rate of property value appreciation and forcing extreme measures, such as road abandonment and property buy-outs.

As the polar ice caps continue to melt and the oceans expand due to global warming, these sea level rise is going to challenge more and more coastal residents.

The Coronavirus Pandemic Threatens to Worsen the Effects of Global Warming and Sea Level Rise

Two widely reported (and rare) positive impacts of the Covid-19 Coronavirus pandemic tragedy are cleaner air and a 17 percent reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions that drive global warming and sea level rise.

Residents in cities around the world have been astonished to see mountain ranges at a distance that have rarely been seen in generations due to curtains of smog. And the drop in greenhouse gas emissions has led many to believe that global warming and sea level rise have been derailed.

Unfortunately, the real picture isn’t so rosy. While there have been a few months with greenhouse gases on the decline — mainly due to the fact that people under lockdown aren’t driving to work — the the high concentration of carbon dioxide accumulated since the turn of the last century remains intact. This ultimately means global warming continues, as does sea level rise.

Some observers see even the temporary drop in the release of greenhouse gases as proof-positive that humanity can tame global warming, thereby preventing the predicted extreme weather — mega droughts, heat waves, floods and intense hurricanes — from impacting society and sea level rise from inundating major cities around the world. Their reasoning is that if people under threat of a pandemic can reduce consumption of fossil fuels, then people facing catastrophe from a warming planet can do the same.

If only it were that simple.

The fact is that most people reduced fossil fuel consumption not as a direct goal to save the environment but because under lockdown they didn’t have a choice. It’s doubtful that without the immediate crisis people would have willingly stopped driving. In addition, there are signs that as nations and states reopen commuters will avoid potential exposure to the virus on public transportation and start driving to work in increasing numbers. This, of course, will increase the rate at which carbon dioxide is pumped into the atmosphere.

Some observers have also opined that the recovery from the pandemic is an excellent opportunity for governments to invest in a new world powered by renewable energy. That’s a very noble goal, but the reality is governments have already spent so much saving their economies from pandemic-related collapse it’s unlikely they’ll have the funds necessary to pay for such an ambitious project.

Further complicating matters in the United States is the fact that the federal government is reluctant to provide emergency funding to state and local governments facing severe deficits due to the loss of tax revenue from economic inactivity during the lockdown and the unexpected expenses involved in dealing with the pandemic. This is especially worrisome because many of the state and local governments grappling with climate change and sea level rise-related expenses were already counting on the federal government to provide a portion of the millions and even billions of dollars they need to fund projects that would protect real estate and critical infrastructure. Without federal assistance, it will be difficult for them to pay for projects, such as seawalls and pump stations and raising roads and water pipes.

When we’re in the middle of the pandemic, it’s hard to predict how this will all play out. One thing’s for sure, however, global warming and sea level rise still pose a threat to coastal communities, and real estate buyers and owners ignore them at their own peril. Bottom Line: If many of the projects needed to protect homes and businesses from sea level rise flooding aren’t funded and begun now, more real estate and critical infrastructure will be inundated in the years to come.

Human Activity, not Earth’s Distance from the Sun is Driving Sea Level Rise

Scientists at Rutgers University have released a study that proves humans burning fossil fuels are creating global warming, not, as some people contend, Earth’s proximity to the sun.

In the past, slight changes in Earth’s orbit drove global warming that resulted in glacial ice melt. In the modern era, the scientists found that a human-driven rise in carbon dioxide — a powerful greenhouse gas — is warming the planet. As a result, glaciers — especially in Antarctica and Greenland — are melting and the oceans are expanding. This is causing the sea levels to rise.

The scientists reached their conclusion by reconstructing the history of Earth’s glacial and ice free periods. They found that sea level declined 20,000 years ago during the last glacial period then it began rising rapidly as the ice age ended. Sea level rise gradually slowed to the point where it was nearly at a standstill in 1900. The researchers said it then started rising again due to human activities, and it has been rising since.

Kennth G. Miller, the study’s lead author and a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Rutgers, told Rutgers Today: “Our team showed that the Earth’s history of glaciation was more complex than previously thought. Although carbon dioxide levels had an important influence on ice-free periods, minor variations in the Earth’s orbit were the dominant factor in terms of ice volume and sea-level changes – until modern times.”

The Rutgers research puts another nail in the coffin of climate change deniers who refuse to recognize that the planet is warming and the seas are rising due to human activity. When combined with the pile of scientific evidence that proves the seas are rising at an ever-accelerating rate, it’s clear that governments and buyers, sellers and real estate agents in coastal areas need to stay up to date on this critical issue that is already threatening their way of life.

Over 100 Climate Experts Predict Over 4 Feet of Sea Level Rise Possible by 2100

In a survey published this month, 106 climate experts predicted sea levels could rise by as much as 4.2 feet by 2100. The study, released by Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, has bad news and potential good news, depending on how successful humans are at reducing the release of greenhouse gases.

First the bad news. The experts estimate that if the burning of fossil fuels raises global temperature by 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit, sea levels could rise by 1.9 feet to 4.2 feet. The good news is that if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced to the point where the global temperature is kept at or below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, seas would only rise by about 1.6 feet. (Considering that real estate and critical infrastructure in many coastal areas is already being inundated by sea level rise measured in inches not feet, “good news” is a certainly a relative term.)

The wide range in sea level rise estimates is due, in part, to the challenge of predicting the rate at which ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland will melt. Satellite observations are indicating that they’re melting at an ever accelerating rate.

Dr. Andra Garner, the study’s co-author and a professor of environmental science at Rowan University, told the Express newspaper that the survey results should help government plan for sea level rise. “This provides a great deal of hope for the future,” she said, “as well as a strong motivation to act now to avoid the more severe impacts of rising seas.”

The takeaway from this study is that property buyers, owners and real estate agents need to pay attention to the threat sea level rise poses to their communities to make informed decisions. Sea level rise flooding can affect property value, maintenance costs, taxes and insurance rates, and the mortgage market.

Planners Can’t Afford to Overlook Groundwater-Driven Sea Level Rise Flooding — University of Hawaii Study

Researchers at the University of Hawaii at Manoa studied three different sources of sea level rise flooding and found groundwater inundation — a rising of the water table to the surface due to the pressure created by sea level rise — is the major threat to urban Honolulu.

To arrive at this conclusion, the researchers studied the likely causes of sea level rise flooding over the next few decades in Honolulu. They did this by producing flood maps that considered the threats posed by sea level rise-driven groundwater inundation, reverse municipal drainage — where ocean water flows backward through the drainage system and rises up through stormwater drainage grates — and direct marine inundation — where ocean water flows in from the sea. Among their surprising findings, they determined that direct marine inundation represented only 3 percent of the overall near-term threat.

The researchers said their findings clearly indicate that seawalls, one of the most popular approaches to holding back sea level rise flooding from damaging real estate and critical infrastructure, such as roads and water and sewer pipes, won’t be able to stop groundwater inundation. They said the only options in areas impacted by groundwater inundation will be to adapt to the flood waters or abandon the affected area.

“What this means for the future of Honolulu is that we need to consider each different type of flooding individually and really think about how we’re adapting to each one,” said Shellie Habel, a coastal geologist with the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program.

The University of Hawaii report should act as a wake-up call to coastal areas everywhere that have high water tables and porous bedrock, like South Florida. The groundwater inundation threat must be considered before enormous amounts of money are invested in sea walls that ultimately won’t be able to protect real estate and critical infrastructure from sea level rise flooding. (Photo courtesy of School of Ocean and Earth Science Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Antarctica and Greenland Ice Melt Raised Sea Levels a Half Inch In the Last 16 Years — NASA Report

NASA scientists crunched data from satellite missions to determine that ice melt in Antarctica and Greenland over the last 16 years raised sea levels about half an inch. Put another way, the researchers said both locations contributed 5,000 gigatons of water to the oceans which is enough to fill Lake Michigan.

Ice melt and ocean expansion due to global warming are the primary contributors to sea level rise. Experts are concerned that the rate of melting is picking up pace. Helen Fricker, a glaciologist at the University of California-San Diego, told National Public Radio, “How much ice we are going to lose, and how quickly we are going to lose it, is a really key thing that needs to be understood, so that we can plan.”

There are two main forces driving the melting in Antarctica and Greenland. In Antarctica, warming oceans are melting floating ice shelves, which is allowing land based ice to flow into the ocean. In Greenland, warmer atmospheric temperatures are melting ice and creating run-off. At the same time, the warmer air is also causing glacial ice to calve off and fall into the ocean.

If all the ice melted in Greenland alone, scientists estimate global sea levels would rise 23 feet. Fricker told NPR, “There’s a lot of infrastructure and airports and people that live right on the ocean, and these people are going to feel the effects of sea level rise that’s resulted because the ice sheets have melted.”

Global Consultant Recommends Steps to Protect Florida Real Estate Value from Sea Level Rise Flooding

McKinsey & Company, a global consulting firm, released a report this week that analyzes the risk sea level rise flooding poses to billions of dollars worth of Florida’s residential real estate and recommends steps that could be taken to mitigate the damage.

The report, titled “Will mortgages and markets stay afloat in Florida?”, starts by stating the simple fact that Florida’s unique location — in a hurricane-prone zone — and geology — extra low elevation with a porous limestone foundation that allows sea water to move freely — makes it very susceptible to sea level rise flooding. In fact, the authors cite a First Street Foundation study that concluded sea level rise will increase the number of days that many coastal areas experience tidal flooding each year from a few days today to 200 days a year by 2050. In addition, the average annual damages from storm surges will itself surge from $2 billion today to up to $4.5 billion by the middle of this century.

The report goes on to discuss how sea level rise is already depressing home values in areas that experience sea level rise flooding compared with those that don’t. “About 25,000 homes in Florida already experience flooding at frequencies of more than 50 times per year (almost once a week on average),” according to the report. “With rising sea levels, 40,000 coastal properties representing $15 billion of value could run this risk by 2030, and 100,000 properties worth $50 billion by 2050.”

The threat to the value of Florida’s residential real estate isn’t posed only by direct flooding, either. The report says as buyers are increasingly made aware of the flooding and the expenses involved in owning a property in a flood zone, prices will likely drop. Buyers could also balk at the higher insurance premiums and taxes that are sure to be levied as a result of flooding. A final point of pressure is the mortgage market. With the risk of flooding increasing every year, experts are wondering how long mortgage providers be willing to write 30-year-mortgages — or even 15 year mortgages, for that matter — for high risk properties when the owners might never pay back the loans.

The report authors offer a few potential solutions that could help mitigate the risk. Among their recommendations are that: 1. Real estate markets become more transparent about the risk of sea level rise flooding, so buyers don’t lose confidence in the market; 2. More money be spent on projects needed to upgrade the infrastructure — such as sea walls and storm sewers — needed to fend off the flooding ; and 3. Policy makers, engineers, investors and community organizations band together in groups to decide which properties to protect from sea level rise flooding and which to abandon.

In the end, the authors write that “While the state and communities face hard choices in the face of rising sea levels and worsening hazards, planning today can help manage the consequences and minimize the costs of climate change in the future.”

It’s clear from this report that the day of reckoning is here for buyers, sellers, owners and real estate agents in coastal communities. Understanding the roles played by individual property owners, governments, insurers and mortgage providers in the health of a real estate market impacted by sea level rise flooding is critical to protect your financial future.

Florida’s First Sea Level Rise Resiliency Officer Leaves Bombshell Report

Julia Nesheiwat, Florida’s first sea level rise resiliency officer, left her position after only a few months on the job, but a report she left behind in late 2019 should act as a call to action for the state.

According to the 36-page annual report she prepared for Governor Ron DeSantis that was acquired by the Tampa Bay Times, Nesheiwat evaluated how Florida was dealing with sea level rise and concluded that their response was too slow and disjointed. “Florida’s coastal communities and regions do not have a lot of time to waste,” she wrote. Her main concerns are that local communities are trying to cope with sea level rise on their own and, as a result, they are duplicating fact-gathering and planning.

“Florida needs a statewide strategy,” she wrote. “Communities are overwhelmed and need one place to turn to for guidance.” One of the facts fueling her concern cited in the report is the “$26 billion of residential property in Florida at risk of chronic flooding by 2045.”

Nesheiwat said the state should serve as the repository for information and guidelines so coastal communities wouldn’t have to duplicate efforts to come up with solutions to common problems posed by sea level rise flooding. She also made it clear that the state can’t rely on cities to address the enormous challenge alone. One of the examples she provided was the $75 million Monroe County needs to raise less than 3 miles of road in Sugarloaf Key.

With sea levels predicted to rise several feet by the end of the century, Florida’s residential and commercial real estate holders can’t afford to ignore Nesheiwat’s warning and advice.

Buyers Need to Consider Fresh Water Sources When Purchasing Real Estate in Communities at Risk from Sea Level Rise

As sea levels rise, many coastal communities are concerned that salty ocean water will contaminate water wells that provide fresh water to millions of residents. The loss of a fresh water source would be devastating to a city or town. Trying to find new sources, if it’s even possible, could be expensive. This issue should be of concern to real estate buyers in coastal communities.

The saltwater intrusion problem isn’t theoretical. For example, in 2007 researchers at Florida State University surveyed water planners to predict what would happen if seas rose 6-to-18 inches by 2057. Half the planners were concerned that their wells would be threatened by tidal salt water traveling up coastal rivers where water intakes and wells were located.

Kenneth Miller, an earth scientist at Rutgers University, told YaleEnvironment360 this week that the combination of heavy development on barrier islands with low elevations and broad exposure to ocean water puts New Jersey and other locations around the world at risk of saltwater intrusion.

South Florida residents could get a taste of the future this summer. The densely populated region is experiencing a deepening drought that’s forcing water managers to enforce watering restrictions and move water around in canals to prevent wildfires in the Everglades. As fresh water supplies are drawn down, there’s the risk that saltwater will try to fill the void, which could put wells at risk.

Whether salt water intrusion becomes a problem remains to be seen, but the situation certainly exposes a situation that many real estate buyers in coastal areas are not aware of that’s only going to get worse in the years to come. Clearly, knowing how secure a community’s supply of fresh water, or even a private well, is from saltwater intrusion is an important point to consider when buying property in areas near the sea.